Sixteen years ago, on June 4, 2007, the UPC party president at the time, Maria Kalule Obote, issued a stinging press statement on the ‘Mystery and the politics of the NM Balaalo pastoralists.’ She said the Balaalo were part of the NRM grand scheme for vice-like grip on Uganda.
At the time, the Balaalo had invaded Queen Elizabeth National Park, and Buliisa District in Bunyoro, and were involved in violent fights with the locals.
Today, the Balaalo invasion has spread to Sebei, Teso, Lango, Acholi, and West Nile sub-regions.
But the same questions that the UPC party had asked have not been answered. So, who are these violent Balaalo, where do they originate from, who gives them guns, bullets, and army uniform and facilitates their movements in trucks and boats?
Grand old plan
But what has become clearer today is the statement by Miria that the Balaalo are part of the “special NRM politics.” Today, most of these Balaalo occupy Amuru, and Gulu districts. But an equally big number did not declare their identity or say where they stay or have come from.
Nevertheless, this cover up is easy to unwrap. Even President Museveni was clear that these Balaalo had come from Ankole, Mpororo, Bunyoro, and parts of DR Congo, Tanzania, and Rwanda. This means some entered Uganda as foreigners.
As Museveni wrote in his Executive Order No. 3 of 2023, these Balaalo had entered “illegally or manipulatively.”
But these Balaalo are not about to leave northern Uganda, especially Acholi, and here is why.
First, there is everything creepy about the Balaalo invasion of northern and north-eastern Uganda. The Balaalo entry into Acholi, Lango, and Teso was concealed. The Prof Jack Pen-Mogi report on these Balaalo, dated September 2023, says these Balaalo secretly entered at night, used trucks to cross Karuma Bridge into Acholi, and small boats to cross River Nile at Masindi Port into Lango, and Lake Kyoga into Teso.
Second, there is just no way that these endless trips by hundreds of Balaalo on boats and trucks with thousands of head of cattle with long horns sticking out would move unchecked. Surprisingly, no alarm was raised against this mass movement, meaning their unhindered trek could only pass for collusion or some grand scheme.
Third, President Museveni was only forced to act against these Balaalo in 2021 after outcries from Teso, Lango, and Acholi. Even then, only 13,965 head of cattle and 599 goats and 21 sheep were evicted by June 2022. The rest stayed put.
Strangely, even more Balaalo reinvaded Acholi, Lango, and Teso with forged documents or had none. But their impunities did not stop, and Museveni again ordered them out in May 2023. Mr Museveni then declared null and void all land transactions with the Balaalo. He also ordered that no Mulaalo should settle or bring cattle to settle in Northern Uganda.
He set a firm deadline for end of June 2023 to expel Balaalo.
Unexpectedly, in October 2023, Museveni turned around on his deadline. He was swayed by his brother, Gen Salim Saleh, the force behind Balaalo must stay. Cleverly, Museveni then met a team of Acholi leaders on the one hand. On the other, was Gen Saleh, Gen Otema Awany, and the so-called Balaalo group in Acholi, to ask for more time to weigh his options.
President Museveni then moved the eviction from October 20,2023, to November 15, 2023. He then made an on-spot visit to the volatile Okidi Parish, in Atiak Subcounty, Amuru District, to calm tempers over his endless change of dates to expel the Balaalo.
President Museveni again moved the eviction to November 25, 2023.
But on November 10, 2023, Museveni penned a biting letter, titled, ‘Mistakes makers and opportunists let us alone (muteleke)’ and took sides with Balaalo. He rebuked the Acholi for being tribal, selfish and unfair for demanding that the Balaalo must go.
Mr Museveni also practically ordered the Acholi to coexist with the Balaalo. He then ordered that the Balaalo who have carved out land, fenced them off from the locals and secured water sources for their herds should not move, but stay.
This picky censure then unsettled many, including Owiny-Dollo, who became anxious. “I asked him [President]’why is that when Acholi people begin to demand that the Balaalo must leave, then you say Acholi people hate other tribes?’”
The government had expelled the Balaalo from Bunyoro, and also kept a tight lip when the Balaalo were ejected from Teso and Lango.
But to date, the Balaalo eviction from Acholi has largely hit a dead end with the errant cattle men easily dodging eviction by melting across Amuru and Lamwo districts. Instead, the local leaders who chose to help enforce the eviction were arrested and prosecuted for trespass, malicious damage, assault, and interfering with Balaalo animal rights.
Echoes of Luweero
So, by dismissing the Acholi protests and pushing for unimpeded pathways for the Balaalo, Mr Museveni and Gen Saleh stirred memories of the NRA Bush War; framed on subduing the North.
The Acholi became anxious that the waves of disruptive invasion by the Balaalo was not random anymore but planned conquest. They looked back, reflected and feared that the move was a manifest carry-over and final assault of the old NRA Bush war that had been relentlessly waged against them since the 1980s.
Same old NRA tactic
Indeed, Mr Museveni’s twists and turns on his Executive Order No.3 of 2023, made it clear that he had once more used negotiation, delays, and shifts to outfox his opponents and secure his goals.
What’s more, historical anecdotes confirm that none challenges Mr Museveni, or negotiates and wins. Museveni has previously used these same guide notes in his protracted NRA Bush War and siege of Mbarara, and Masaka army garrisons as he stretched the UNLA.
The same manoeuvres worked for Mr Museveni during the Nairobi Peace Talks in 1985 as he ran circles around and outflanked the Gen Tito Okello junta and readied his final assault on Kampala in 1986.
Mr Museveni also deftly split his foes in the UPDA as he cleverly outfoxed their top brass and wrapped up the Pece Agreement of 1988, and the Addis Ababa Peace Accord of 1990.
With these retrospection, Gen Museveni’s swing around on the Balaalo triggered anxiety that while the NRA guns have fallen silent, the old war on the Acholi and wider north, has been only restaged.
So, for those who still seek President Museveni to bargain for the Balaalo eviction, should remember that negotiation and minimalist actions are Museveni’s code words for exhausting his foes, forcing them to yield, and imposing surrender on his own terms.
Mr Museveni has always been categorical on “irreversible showdown” with anyone who doesn’t toe his line. He made this clear in his article, ‘Mistakes makers and opportunists let us alone (mutuleke).’
Settler colonialism
For these manoeuvres, the Acholi see the push for the Balaalo foray as an extension of the unfinished NRA war against them and their resources. Museveni’s nod was then seen as an approval of what former Obongi County MP Kaps Hassan Fungaroo calls an imposition of Balaalo settler colonialism in Acholi, Obongi, and wider northern Uganda.